adp

With more than $23 trillion pumped into the financial system via monetary and fiscal policy in the last 12 months, there's good reason to fear a rise in inflation, particularly if the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing is not withdrawn in time.

Further, rising inflation accompanied by competition for capital from abroad would invariably lead to rising interest rates in the United States, but so far, higher interest rates have not manifested themselves. One example: The U.S. Treasury this week sold $44 billion in two-year notes for 0.802%, Bloomberg News reported. In other words it borrowed $44 billion for less than 1% -- an astoundingly low rate.

U.S. stock futures advanced Wednesday morning ahead of what is going to be a busy day full of economic reports before Thanksgiving. While investor sentiment is still upbeat following the Federal Reserve minutes and optimism about the economy, trading could be choppy today given the market is closed tomorrow. The market will reopen Friday for a short day.

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday on lackluster economic data, namely the GDP revision downward. However, the losses eased after the FOMC minutes and the Fed raised its growth expectations for 2010.

Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to testify before Congress on December 3rd. The hearings will determine whether he will be confirmed for another term.

Bernanke is faced with increasing criticism for his handling of the financial crisis and lack of transparency. Representative Ron Paul has a bill before the House demanding an accounting of what the Fed has done with all the money it is spending.

U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday morning, trading in a tight range after snapping a three-day losing streak Monday with a strong rally. This morning, investors await a slew of economic reports as they digest recent tech earnings and more bank news.

Stronger-than-expected home sales data, as well as rising commodity prices and a weak dollar, helped fuel markets Monday, which closed at least 1.3% higher.

Is a continued weakening in the dollar in the first half of 2010 a fait accompli? Not so fast.

The median prediction in Bloomberg's survey of as many as 43 strategists shows the dollar gaining against the euro, British pound, yen, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona by September 30, 2010, Bloomberg News reported Monday.

Here's a shocker! Over the next decade the U.S. government is expected to rack up $9 trillion in debt. More than half that amount, $4.8 trillion, will be in interest payments.

To further emphasize the depth of the problem, in 2015 interest due will be $533 billion, equal to 1/3 of the federal income taxes!

Right now, the Treasury is in a sweet spot with regards to interest payments. With interest rates at near zero, we are able to finance trillions of dollars of debt with practically no interest payments. That scenario is about to change. The change could be rather quick. If the economy heats up, interest rates will rise and so too will interest payments. Because the debt is so large, only a small rise in interest payments could increase the interest burden by a large amount.

The only thing that has been devalued faster than our precious dollar is the perpetual slide in government credibility. Over the years we have heard countless times about the importance of a strong dollar from our leaders.

"Our administration believes in and will do everything in its power to support a strong dollar" or something like this has been spewed out by Republicans and Democrats alike, yet there is little evidence that the policies put in place over the past century have done anything of the sort. Perhaps there was one person that took the heat and did the right thing -- Paul Volcker, during the Carter administration, who had to deal with dizzying inflation.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did something Monday that Fed chairs rarely do: he commented on the dollar.

Comments about the dollar are almost exclusively left to the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, but on Monday Bernanke, in a speech before the Economic Club of New York, said the large movement of capital precipitated by the financial crisis "resulted in a marked increase in the dollar," and those flows are now returning to their former status, due to improved credit market conditions and the stabilization of global economic activity.

In a speech to the Economic Club of New York, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke addressed concerns about the falling US dollar.

How? He says he is "attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar" and will "monitor these developments closely".

That's a wonderfully Orwellian turn of phrase because it means precisely nothing.

U.S. stock futures followed global markets higher Monday morning as Japan announced its economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace and governments around the world said they would maintain their stimulus policies. Investors are also awaiting a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, GM's first earnings report since emerging from bankruptcy, as well as more economic data, including retail sales and manufacturing.

Japan's gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 4.8% in the third quarter, its largest expansion in more than two years. This was higher than economists' 2.6% projection. The world's second largest economy relies heavily on exports and demand at home and overseas improved, indicating its trading partners are also recovering.

The federal budget year ended in October. The October deficit number set a record of $176.4 billion, which was higher than the $150 billion economists had predicted.

For the budget year 2009, the deficit reached $1.42 trillion. That too was an all-time record. This year's deficit was $958 billion above the 2008 deficit. October was the 13th straight month to show a deficit.

The Federal Reserve and Wall Street executives are discussing a new way to provide bank capital in times of crisis. They want to issue a new security called a contingent convertible (CoCo).

What is a CoCos and how does it work? CoCos are hybrid securities, In normal times they operate like a bond and pay coupons to investors. However, in times of crisis they automatically convert into equity. If bank capital fell below prescribed limits they would trigger the conversion from bonds to equity.

A wise trader once told me: "It's all in the price. All the thoughts, ideas and emotions of all the traders throughout the world are in that one number."

Gold is trading at $1,118.00 per ounce. What is that number telling us? Pure and simple, the market is telling us that inflation is on the way. The Indian government just bought 200 tons of gold valued at over $7 trillion dollars. In other words they exchanged $7 trillion US dollars for the 200 tons of gold.

At the same time the December US dollar contract traded below 75.00 on a trade-weighted basis. What is that number telling us? Traders are turning in dollars for other investments, mainly stocks and commodities.

U.S. stock futures were higher Wednesday morning, indicating stocks will open on an upbeat note after investors expectation that interest rates will remain low for some time increased following speeches from Federal Reserve officials. As the dollar further fell, investors turned to asset buying, pushing stocks higher.

Stocks looked for direction Tuesday, finishing the day mixed and not much changed, as Wall Street took a break from a 6-day rally. Today, U.S. bond markets are closed for Veteran's Day.

Don't count me among Henry Blodget's admirers, but he makes an interesting argument in a recent video posted on BusinessInsider.com (see below). Blodget argues that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has a "secret plan" to keep interest rates too low for too long on purpose. Why? To encourage inflation. According to Blodget, Bernanke has two good reasons for doing this:

• Faster economic growth, which leads to more jobs, fewer angry constituents, and a Congress that's happier with Ben Bernanke.
• Faster erosion of the real value of our debts. Consumers and the government are drowning under a massive debt load. One way to make paying off this debt easier is to make the dollars it is denominated in worth less. Bernanke will try to hasten this process as much as possible, taking it right to the point where our creditor China is mad as hell -- but not quite to the point where China actually stops lending to us.